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A handful of polling stations throughout New Zealand have an uncanny ability with picking general election winners. For the inside running on who might win the election, forget the polls. Instead, consider Birkenhead Baptist Church. Pews get shunted across the hard-wearing grey carpet, replaced by cardboard voting booths, and the doors are opened to all-comers. About a thousand people cast their ballots at the church each election — and they do so almost exactly in line with how the nation votes.
Of the roughly polling booths across the country, Birkenhead Baptist is one of just eight that have got the party vote pretty much right in , and — and the only one of those that also got it right in Its next neighbour is the Birkenhead Transport depot, where a phalanx of pale yellow buses park up each night.
The surrounding area of Birkdale is pick-and-mix: wooden bungalows fronting the street, smaller fibrolite houses tucked down right-of-ways, a cluster of pensioner flats on one corner. Based on Census data, none of the areas that the most bang-on polling booths are located in, including Birkdale, are wild outliers for either ethnicity or income, but nor are they dead-ringers for the demography of New Zealand overall.
RNZ identified a block in Saint Andrews in the Hamilton West electorate in this story last year that represented New Zealand in miniature — but the results from the nearest polling booth at Vardon Primary School were way off, with voters in the area skewing towards National every election.
