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The fact that all sides prefer the status quo to alternatives, however, does not make the status quo either sustainable or desirable in the long term. The closure of gas pipelines through Ukraine expected at the end of is only the first among a series of deadlines creating new hurdles making the sustained maintenance of current arrangements increasingly unlikely. Just a few months later, in September , the 5-years contract stipulated between Moldovagaz and Gazprom in will come to an end.
Finally, the European Union currently has a target to phase out all Russian fossil fuel supplies by Looking at a map makes clear that gas can reach Moldova either through Ukraine or EU countries: if both supply routes will effectively be closed, it is unclear how Gazprom would be able to ensure continued provision of supplies to Transnistria.
To be clear, the problem is not ensuring the provision of gas per se: as Moldova fully enters the European gas and energy markets, companies such as Tiraspoltransgaz may access the European market at the same conditions as other companies based in Moldova. There would however be a fundamental difference: as long as Transnistria gets gas from Gazprom, it effectively does not need to pay for it; if it buys it at market rates, Tiraspol would need to actually pay for the gas it uses, which of course makes all the difference.
Prices have been fluctuating substantially, but in recent years this would have amounted to about half a billion USD per year, or close to half of the GDP recorded by de facto authorities in Transnistria and more than their total budget expenditure. Energy inter-dependence due to end By themselves, none of these hurdles is insurmountable, but each of them makes clearer how prevalent arrangements are based on shaky grounds.
